Russia has employed disinformation as a critical component of its “political warfare”, leveraging it for both tactical and strategic gains. This became starkly evident during Russia’s 2013/14 hybrid campaigns against Ukraine, a tactic which intensified ahead of its 2022 full-scale invasion and persisting throughout the war into the present.

Following the failure of Vladimir Putin’s initial plan to swiftly capture Kyiv and overpower Ukraine, he resorted to an alternate strategy aimed at prolonging the conflict. This strategy seeks to dismantle Ukraine’s resolve, erode Western support, and induce war-weariness among the international community supporting Ukraine. Despite facing sanctions and bearing the substantial costs of military engagement, Russia has demonstrated resilience and persistence. The prolonged conflict, coupled with its global economic ramifications, is gradually inducing war fatigue among Ukraine’s allies, playing into Putin’s hands by weakening international support in the long-term.Unlike authoritarian Russia, the continuity of foreign and security policies of democracies are vulnerable to electoral cycles and fluctuating public opinion. Russia’s strategy of disseminating falsehoods aims to erode democratic values and institutions, undermine public trust in government, foster polarisation, incite dissension, amplify support for extremist parties and ideologies, propagate conspiracy theories, and meddle in electoral processes. 

The project’s objective is to meticulously analyse the patterns, themes, and mechanisms of Russian disinformation activities and their evolution, evaluate the efficacy of Russian campaigns in the infosphere, pinpoint vulnerabilities within societies supporting Ukraine, and recommend solutions to bolster resilience against such insidious activities.

The project aims to:

1. Analyse Russia’s disinformation strategies and “influence operations” tactics: investigatingthe narratives, platforms, and techniques utilised throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict to understand the breadth and depth of Russia’s disinformation efforts.
2. Assess the impact on Western perceptions: scrutinising how Russian disinformation campaigns have influenced public opinion and policymaking in Western countries, revealing the extent of their effectiveness and reach.
3. Address Western strategies for acknowledging and countering Russian disinformation, including NATO’s response.
4. Explore “war fatigue”: capturing how disinformation campaigns contribute to war exhaustion among international actors and how such fatigue can be strategically exploited.
5. Examine the concept of “weaponization of information”: investigating the utilisation of information – whether true or false – to accomplish objectives spanning the tactical andstrategic levels and bringing the operation into the cognitive domain.
6. Broaden the analytical and recommendation framework: extending the investigation to a more general concept of “cognitive warfare”; including problems such as the nefarious use of AI in generating disinformation and the psychological and neurocognitive aspects of susceptibility to disinformation/propaganda; and exploring how cognitive science can enhance resilience against these tactics.

This project is dedicated to integrating contemporary issues within psychological and information warfare, presenting an exhaustive, expert approach to comprehending and mitigating the challenges of disinformation in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and beyond. By doing so, it intends to elevate public awareness regarding the intricacies of disinformation and its implications for global security and political and social dynamics.

Activities

We are excited to announce that in 2024 we will host a two-day seminar at the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. The seminar will feature a selection of invited speakers and participants, accommodating distinguished speakers in the field of various backgrounds. The event is expected to generate valuable contributions from participants, which will be developed into expert analyses and a report to be published in collaboration with LSE IDEAS and the New Eastern Europe journal.